US: Headline payrolls data raises concerns for fast recovery for markets

In the US, non-farm payrolls, which is expected to increase by 200K according to the Bloomberg terminal, increased 379K in February, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%.

In the US, non-farm payrolls, which is expected to increase by 200K according to the Bloomberg terminal, increased 379K in February, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. As headline figures point to a rapid recovery, the heating trend in bond yields has progressed further. At this point, of course, the important thing is that the number of people who can gain regular spending ability increases with the filling of more job positions. Good news for the level of demand in the economy. While the unemployment rate of 6.2% and unemployment of 10 million are at their best after the April 2020 pandemic period, they remain far from February 2020 levels.

 

If we look at the sub items; In February, most of the job gains occurred in the entertainment and hospitality sector, with fewer gains in temporary relief services, healthcare and outreach, retail trade and manufacturing. Employment in education, construction and mining declined. Employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors rose by 355,000 in February as restrictions due to the pandemic eased in some parts of the country. About four-fifths of the increase was in catering and drinking places (+286,000). Employment also increased in accommodation (+36,000) and leisure, gambling and recreation (+33,000). Employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors decreased by 3.5 million, or 20.4 percent, during the year. The overall workforce pool is still in a narrowing trend. Long-term unemployment remained stable at 11.1%, while private sector employment increased by 465K.

 

"We are still far from achieving our goals," Powell said yesterday. Stating that a change in monetary expansion requires real progress towards goals, Powell said, "We are very committed to our promise to achieve our goals. There are strong reasons to expect employment growth, but full employment is unlikely to reach our goals in 2021." said. On the other hand, what he did not say was more effective than he said in the market and caused the increase in bond yields to accelerate. After this stage, either the bond market will stabilize and yields will fall; or maturity structures will be changed in asset purchases and the yield curve will be horizontalized. We see that the movement of 10 year bond yields continues up after the data and exceeds the highest level on February 25 with 1.62%.

 

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